19 February 2009

+ 2034

The year television will die.

I know Ben loves it when I make claims like this but here's why...
+ The current older generation will pass on and their media consumption habits will go with them.

+ The next age bracket down has been through computing and Internet introduced into mainstream life. Having already gone through this change, a small portion of this generation will be more likely to again adapt their behaviours.

+ The next generation, probably looking at young Gen X's and old Gen Y's will be the most resistant to this change and will suffer the most with television's death, although their own won't be too far off.

+ Young Gen Y's and iGens will change their behaviour or will have grown up with television already playing a very little role in their life.
Check back in 25 years and if I'm wrong I'll give 5% of my print media start up to who ever comments here first.

17 comments:

  1. You are wrong - I hope I last 25 years though ...

    I don’t think it will completely die. I saw a quote today that sais "so long as there are couches there will be TV".

    I think its role will get smaller and smaller but I just can't see how anyone would want to watch sport on an iPhone or PC?

    Give me Friday night footy/cricket, a pizza and my 46" LCD and I am a happy man. I'll put up with all the KFC and VB ads they want to throw at me.

    I am also thinking that the TV will be very handy for when my son gets a bit older and it is a pseudo babysitter while I am in the other room posting comments on this blog.

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  2. I'm sorry Zac, you must have missed the funeral. Television died the day they brought Daryl Sommers back.

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  3. @ Daniel Oyster

    Your computer will connect directly to a display in the lounge room and all your sport will be feed live straight into it. And independent production will still live, where you can choose what you want to watch, somewhat like an RSS feed.

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  4. will you be adding interest to that 5% and increasing it in-line with any inflation? :-)

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  5. TV is doomed to die and we might actually go back to finding more active ways to be passive. But you got to give time to our generation of semi-lazy TV addicts to go threw.
    my iPod has already killed radio, my iTV will hopefully kill my TV...

    The only way for TV stations to compete will be to go ad-free....

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  6. how about some money for me anyway...

    i think you owe me a drink for the other week atleast!

    TV will be different, and it may come via the interweb, but heaps of people our age and younger watch a hell of a lot of TV!

    It will die one day, but not in 25 years :)

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  7. I'm going to make another prediction. I know it's controversial, but I feel this is the kind of blog that can tolerate radical thinking.

    In 2034, people will no longer wear pants (but still what we primitive 2009 folk refer to as 'underpants'). And here's why:

    +As the older generation passes on, so does the social stigma of not wearing them

    +They will never be required for warmth, as global warming will have caused the average daytime temperature on earth to rise 47 degrees

    +In 2011, the early adopters emerged after Paris Hilton stopped wearing them completely late in 2010

    Seriously, I kind it really hard to envision my living room without a TV in it. What's the difference between a TV and a 'display'? And you can already choose what you want to watch on Digital TV! You're confusing me!

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  8. @ haze

    Lol! By the death of television I mean broadcast of mainstream channels, particularly those funded by thirty second spots.

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  9. Really? we are making predictions for 25 years time? Not sure I see the point - nor do I care.

    Given that the internet has been in popular use for about 14 years, iPods for less than 10 and mobile phones for not much longer - and consider the impact that has made. What will happen in 25 years time? Who the fuck knows and anybody who says differently is trying to sell you something.

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  10. @ nat

    So you don't want in on my start up?

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  11. So I've come across this wonderful new technology.

    It streams into my room images far sharper than those I see on my computer screen, with sound at a much higher quality.

    Another great thing is that the people behind it take their demographic knowledge of the people who may be watching, and present to them the programming they are most likely to enjoy.

    Every day they monitor how many people indeed did so, and fine tune their schedules accordingly.

    They then aggregate this audience and allow advertisers to put targeted messages in front of them. This allows the viewers to watch it for FREE!

    It allows the content producers to make and buy high quality content. It even funds important pieces of journalism.

    And because my colleagues may well have seen the same items as me the night before, it gives us soemthng to talk about around our imaginary water cooler the next day.

    Obviously this will never compete with being able to pop onto Pirate Bay and download the latest set of Heroes in a mere eight or nine hours. Or paying a large monthly fee to create a VPN so that I can watch Hulu from the US.

    But I do wonder if it might just find itself a small place in the long term media mix...

    Cheers,

    Tim - Mumbrella

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  12. @ Tim

    Internet speeds will increase and so will bandwidth, image and sound quality will be Blue Ray quality, all streamable online. Broadcasters won't need to worry about demographics, because each individual will pull in what content that want, when they want and how they want. They'll watch it commercial free and mostly likely for free as well with some of the new business models people are developing.

    I don't know about you, but last time I turned on the television the commercials certainly not "targeted" messages.

    And journalism will look after itself.

    Microtransactions, other creative new media business models, increases in Internet speed and bandwidth and time will see television's death.

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  13. bring on the death of tv.. sooner than 25 years, i hope!! although i expect that old gen x-ers, young gen y-ers (ie, me) will probably resist the least, as we're not really gamers and grew up slackers who don't give a fuck about televised sport. not in the same way true Ys are. (and if you suggest that gaming doesn't influence tv, shame on you). oh, and in 2034, i'll only be 57. that's hardly 'not too far off' from death, thanks very much. :D

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  14. Mate this kids got no idea! Fair dinkum. Of course TV as we know of course will have ceased to exist by 2034.

    It's not about television or computers or digital feeds or video on demand or any other buzzword or cliche you can think of. It's all about people and entertainment.

    People like to be entertained. Some of them like to be informed. Some of them like conversation. Guess what - you can do all that hrough a screen. Whether it's on a phone. PC or Tv it's still essentially a screen. Screens will still be with us in 2034. They may be holographic representations but they'll still be screens.

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  15. Zac, thanks for killing me off, hehe.

    At 33 I've already killed TV at home. We have a TV and watch TV programmes on DVD but have no facility to watch broadcast television and don't miss it. I would consider an Apple TV to stream from my notebook to the TV though.

    to stay in touch with cool ads I hear about on blogs I watch them on youtube.

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  16. Some people said TV would kill radio

    radio would kill print etc

    the two mediums are still around and still strong ... despite the doomsayers.

    the internet and its cheerleaders claim it makes all other media irrelevant but i think it's missing the point.

    as a professional content distribution medium TV is very efficient for all parties involved.

    When you make predictions like this it kind of looks like you're just making big claims for the sake of it, there's really not much substance behind it ...

    TV will bounce in 09 and 10 - trust me.

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  17. I have to admit, I can't actually remember the last time I watched broadcast TV. It's entirely possible that it was actually last year. Unless you count The Morning Show, which is playing in the student lounge at the moment. But I mean actually sat down and watched a show from start to end.

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